Energy and Transportation
The Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change reported recently that emissions from transportation doubled
from 1970 to 7 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2010. Road vehicles
accounted for 80% of this increase. The top 4 transportation sources accounted
for 92% of emissions from the transport sector:
Road 72.06%
International ad coastal shipping 9.26%
International aviation 6.52%
Domestic aviation 4.11%
In
contrast, rail contributed 1.6% of transportation emissions.
Only 10% of the global population
accounts for 80% of passenger kilometers. Passenger kilometers are up 50% from
2005 and are expected to double by 2050. Not only are road vehicles the greatest
transport sector contributor to greenhouse gasses, road vehicle kilometers are
the fastest growing member of the transport sector.
Putting the transport sector in
perspective, energy was the greatest contributor to total emissions at 34% and
agriculture, forestry, and land use was next at 24%. Transport contributed
about 14% to total emissions. For the United States, electric power was the
greatest contributor to US emissions at 38% while transport was next at 34%. Transport, and especially road vehicles, may then
be expected to grow in importance as transport becomes a greater proportion of
greenhouse gas emissions.
One might hope that the electric
power sector might experience declines that give some room for an ever
expanding transportation contribution to greenhouse gas emissions. On the
contrary, the International Energy Agency forecasts a 56% increase in electric power
by 2040 and the US Energy Information Agency forecasts a 25% increase in US electric
power by 2040. The US is currently below
2008 emissions by about 14% and would rise to just below 2008 levels as 2040
would see as much electric power generated from coal and nuclear as today while
a third of the increase of 25% by 2040 would be met by doubling generation from
renewables and two-thirds from increased use of natural gas. While natural gas
emissions are half those of coal, they are about 100 times emissions from
renewables.
The US is second in overall
greenhouse gas emissions behind China and ahead of India, the third largest
emitter nation. Yet US per capita emissions are three times per capita
emissions for China and 12 times per capita emissions for India. US leadership
in reducing emissions may therefore be center stage for progress capping the rise
in global temperature to 2 degrees. Just to focus the mind, looking at historic
data for when global temperatures were 4 degrees higher, sea levels were 18
feet higher. Looking further back to when average temperatures were 6 degrees
higher, sea levels were 120 feet higher. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change may expect current efforts to lead to a rise of 4.7 degrees. Forecasts
of the population that could be supported at an 18 foot rise in sea level are
about 1 billion people. For me, looking at ways to curb greenhouse gas
emissions are preferable to discussions of the fate of the other 8 billion or
so that will have to go.
For the US, the Clean Power Plan
that would cut electric power emissions by 30%
are a
key step. US standards for mileage for cars and light trucks to rise to 54.5
miles per gallon by model year 2025 are hopeful. US mileage has improved from
13mpg in 1975 to
19.7
mpg in 1999 and even further to 24 mpg in 2013. Yet the US has a long way to go
to catch up with the European Union at
45 miles per gallon and even higher mileage in Japan. Gas prices in the EU are about $9 per gallon and cars are much
smaller attesting to the importance of price signals. A US increase in gasoline
tax would fuel funds for infrastructure improvements and get clear results in
reduced emissions.
The Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change calls for actions to avoid energy use (walking or biking come to
mind), modal choice (rail versus ancient trucks in an improved rail network in
Africa jumps out from Jeffrey Sachs Age of Sustainable Development comparison
of the nationwide rail network in India versus the continent of Africa’s fragmented
links to various minerals and other natural resources), energy intensity (US
potential savings from energy efficiency, for example, are well documented),
and improved carbon intensity (using renewables to produce electricity may be
200 yield 200 times fewer emissions than coal).
International documentation of
success stories in each of these action areas may produce the wave of progress
that we clearly need. Let the innovation begin!energy and transportation
